Risk transmission between equity market of China and its trading partners: new evidence from various financial crises

PurposeThe authors examine the volatility connections between the equity markets of China and its trading partners from developed and emerging markets during the various crises episodes (i.e. the Asian Crisis of 1997, the Global Financial Crisis, the Chinese Market Crash of 2015 and the COVID-19 outbreak).Design/methodology/approachThe authors use the GARCH and Wavelet approaches to estimate causalities and connectedness.FindingsAccording to the findings, China and developed equity markets are connected via risk transmission in the long term across various crisis episodes. In contrast, China and emerging equity markets are linked in short and long terms. The authors observe that China leads the stock markets of India, Indonesia and Malaysia at higher frequencies. Even China influences the French, Japanese and American equity markets despite the Chinese crisis. Finally, these causality findings reveal a bi-directional causality among China and its developed trading partners over short- and long-time scales. The connectedness varies across crisis episodes and frequency (short and long run). The study's findings provide helpful information for portfolio hedging, especially during various crises.Originality/valueThe authors examine the volatility connections between the equity markets of China and its trading partners from developed and emerging markets during the various crisis episodes (i.e. the Asian Crisis of 1997, the Global Financial Crisis, the Chinese Market Crash of 2015 and the COVID-19 outbreak). Previously, none of the studies have examined the connectedness between Chinese and its trading partners' equity markets during these all crises.

Japanese Economic Performance after the Pandemic: A Sectoral Analysis

The COVID-19 crisis battered the Japanese economy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the pandemic has left scars. To this end, it employs out-of-sample forecasting models and detailed stock market data for 30 sectors and disaggregated current account data for the 3 years after the first case occurred. The findings indicate that stock prices in sectors such as tourism, education, and cosmetics remain far below forecasted values after three years. Office equipment and semiconductor stock prices initially fell more than predicted but have since recovered. Other sectors such as bicycle parts and home appliances gained at first but are now performing as expected. Sectors such as home delivery and electronic entertainment continue to outperform. The results also indicate that income flows from Japanese investments abroad are much larger than forecasted, keeping the Japanese current account in surplus even as imports of oil and commodities have created persistent trade deficits. Since the travails of hard-hit sectors such as tourism reflect their exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic rather than bad choices made by firms, policymakers should consider employing cost-effective ways to stimulate economic activity in these sectors. © 2023 by the author.

How do the sectoral indices react to COVID-19? Evidence from an emerging economy

The study empirically examines the impact of the COVID-19 on different sectoral indices of the National Stock Exchange (India) using the event study method and a generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. We provide evidence of positive impacts on the auto, oil and gas, healthcare, and pharma sectors. While the bank, financial services, and private bank sectors are the most adversely impacted sectors, the PSU bank, media, and reality sectors are the least impacted, and the rest are moderately impacted sectors. The overall impact of COVID-19 was negative until the implementation of nationwide lockdowns and the announcement of stimulus packages. The GARCH results exhibit more substantial evidence for the negative impact of the pandemic on the FMCG, IT, metal, oil and gas, and PSU bank sectors. We also find a more favourable impact on FMCG, pharma, and healthcare sectors in India.

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Emerging Stock Market Volatility

This research examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices on Pakistan's stock market volatility. Particularly, we examine the impact of the economic policy uncertainty index for Pakistan and bilateral global trading partner countries, the US, China, and the UK. We employ the GARCH-MIDAS model and combination forecast approach to evaluate the performance of economic uncertainty indices. The empirical findings show that the US economic policy uncertainty index is a more powerful predictor of Pakistan stock market volatility. In addition, the EPU index for the UK also provides valuable information for equity market volatility prediction. Surprisingly, Pakistan and China EPU indices have no significant predictive information for volatility forecasting during the sample period. Lastly, we find evidence of all uncertainty indices during economic upheaval from the COVID-19 pandemic. We obtained identical results even during the Covid-19. Our findings are robust in various evaluation methods, like MCS tests and other forecasting windows.

Global Uncertainty and Economic Growth - Evidence from Pandemic Periods

This paper investigates whether global uncertainty predicts economic growth rates using a global sample of 136 countries. We use the panel regression model and find strong evidence that global uncertainty negatively predicts the economic growth rate. Further, the negative impact of global uncertainty on economic growth rates is amplified during pandemic periods versus non-pandemic periods. Our main findings hold after a range of robustness tests.

The COVID-19 pandemic, economic policy uncertainty and the hedging role of cryptocurrencies: a global perspective

PurposeThe COVID-19 pandemic has led to global economic policy uncertainty, which has increased the need to investigate ways to mitigate the uncertainty. This study aims to examine the potential of cryptocurrencies as a hedge and safe haven avenue against economic policy uncertainty.Design/methodology/approachThis study investigates the behavior of the five leading cryptocurrencies in relation to country-level and group-level economic policy uncertainty indices, as measured by the text-based method developed by Baker et al. (The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2016, 131, 1593-1636). The research covers a broad range of emerging and developed economies from July 2013 to September 2020. The study employs the approach of Narayan et al. (Economic Modelling, 2016, 53, 388-397) to examine the hedging and safe-haven properties of cryptocurrencies.FindingsThis study finds that the top cryptocurrencies play a hedging role against economic policy uncertainty, with some exceptions. Additionally, there is evidence to support the idea that cryptocurrencies can serve as a safe haven during the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, investors may benefit from using cryptocurrencies as a risk-management avenue during times of uncertainty.Originality/valueThis research contributes to the existing literature by testing the cryptocurrencies' hedging and safe haven properties in a new way, by analyzing their lead and lag behaviors using a recent and innovative approach. Additionally, it examines a wide range of emerging and advanced markets, providing insight into the potential of using cryptocurrencies as a risk mitigation avenue.

Effects of the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic on implied stock market volatility: International evidence using a google trend measure.

This paper investigates the relationship between investors' attention, as measured by Google search queries, and equity implied volatility during the COVID-19 outbreak. Recent studies show that search investors' behavior data is an extremely abundant repository of predictive data, and investor-limited attention increases when the uncertainty level is high. Our study using data from thirteen countries across the globe during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (January-April 2020) examines whether the search "topic and terms" for the pandemic affect market participants' expectations about future realized volatility. With the panic and uncertainty about COVID-19, our empirical findings show that increased internet searches during the pandemic caused the information to flow into the financial markets at a faster rate and thus resulting in higher implied volatility directly and via the stock return-risk relation. More specifically for the latter, the leverage effect in the VIX becomes stronger as Google search queries intensify. Both the direct and indirect effects on implied volatility, highlight a risk-aversion channel that operates during the pandemic. We also find that these effects are stronger in Europe than in the rest of the world. Moreover, in a panel vector autoregression framework, we show that a positive shock on stock returns may soothe COVID-related Google searches in Europe. Our findings suggest that Google-based attention to COVID-19 leads to elevated risk aversion in stock markets.

Stock return anomalies identification during the Covid-19 with the application of a grouped multiple comparison procedure.

This study investigates the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the Chinese stock market in 2020. Using daily data of three industries, this study addresses the identification of abnormal stock returns as a multiple hypothesis testing problem and proposes to apply a grouped comparison procedure for better detection. By comparing the numbers of daily signals and numbers of stocks with abnormal positive and negative returns, the empirical result shows that the three industries perform differently under the pandemic. Compared to the non-grouped testing procedure, the signals found by the grouped procedure are more prominent, which is advantageous for some situations when there tends to be abnormal performance clustering at the occurrence of major event. This paper on stock return anomalies gives a new perspective on the impact of major events to the stock market, like the global outbreak disease.

Which COVID-19 information really impacts stock markets?

Information about the COVID-19 pandemic abounds, but which COVID-19 data actually impacts stock prices? We investigate which measures of COVID-19 matter most by applying elastic net regression for measure selection using a sample of the 35 largest stock markets. Out of 24 measures, COVID-19 related Google search trends, the stringency of government responses and media hype prevail during the height of the COVID-19 crisis. These measures proxy for COVID-19 related uncertainty, the economic impact of lockdowns and panic-driven media attention, respectively, summarizing key aspects of COVID-19 that move stock markets. Moreover, geographical proximity to the virus's outbreak and a country's development level also matter in terms of impact.

Corporate philanthropy and corporate social irresponsibility during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from China

Purpose This study aims to investigate the perspective of corporate philanthropy during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China for firms with various levels of corporate social responsibility (CSR). Specifically, the study appraises the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the stock returns and sustainable development of Chinese-listed companies and determines the likelihood of paying donations vis-a-vis firm reputation.Design/methodology/approach The study used data from 117 Chinese-listed firms engaged in philanthropy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors also utilized the stock returns and cash donation data, and owing to the cross-sectional data and continuous nature of dependent variables, they employed the ordinary least squares regression to test the research hypotheses.Findings The results show that irresponsible actions have a positive relationship with donations. The study particularly reveals that irresponsible firms have significant negative abnormal returns during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.Originality/value To the best of our knowledge, this is the first empirical study to explore the perspective of corporate philanthropy during the COVID-19 pandemic for companies with different CSR levels. This study contributes to the empirical research on CSR and provides insights for managerial-cum-financial decisions to encourage managers of irresponsible firms to pursue philanthropic behaviors after crisis events.

Can internet concern about COVID-19 help predict stock markets: new evidence from high-concern and low-concern periods

The unprecedented outbreak of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in extreme volatility in stock markets. This study mainly examines the predictive ability of the Internet concern about COVID-19 on stock index returns, based on the framework of GARCH type models. Instead of using the whole sample period, we divide the Internet concern about COVID-19 into high-concern and low-concern periods by breakpoint test method and then examine its predictive ability for stock returns in different periods, respectively. Using stock indexes of 10 countries and abnormal Google search volume of 'coronavirus' as study samples, the results reveal that (1) the Internet concern about COVID-19 has a negative impact on the stock index returns in the whole and high-concern periods, while its influence in the low-concern period is mixed;(2) the Internet concern about COVID-19 improves the prediction accuracy of stock index returns in the high-concern period, while seems to lose its powerful predictive ability in the whole and low-concern periods.

An Assessment of Unconventional Monetary Policy During COVID-19 Pandemic in India

We employ event study methodology to analyze the impact of unprecedented unconventional monetary policy (UMP) measures employed by the Reserve Bank of India to fortify monetary transmission mechanism and to restore financial stability. We find that the UMP announcements result in a decline in bond yields and yield spread as well as increase in market capitalization and sectoral portfolio of stock returns. Evaluating the relative efficacy of UMP measures, we find that targeted long-term repo operation announcements are more effective in easing bond yields than mere long-term repo operations. Our findings provide beneficial inference for day-traders and investors as asset prices increase significantly and durable goods producing stock returns found to be higher than those of non-durable goods. The lessons that can be drawn for the emerging market economy central banks, who do not have enough space to conduct conventional monetary policy and even when they do not face zero lower bound interest rate, they still can employ UMP tools to directly influence banks cost of funds, and long-term bond yields and interest rates, and in turn, portfolio of stock returns and investments to stimulate aggregate demand. JEL Classification: C13, C54, E52, E65

Oil in the age of coronavirus: Hysteria or appropriate fall?

We look at the oil price fall in the beginning of 2020 and the effects of coronavirus and the attention towards it on these prices. Such a fall was observed at multiple markets simultaneously with the spread of coronavirus and the panic around it, and oil market wasn't an exception. Using OLS time series models, we investigate - what was the main reason behind such a fall - the coronavirus pandemic itself or rather the attention towards it. We prove the absence of straight effects of the COVID-19 itself on oil prices. At the same time we find significant negative impact of the attention towards COVID-19 on the Internet search on the oil prices. We investigate the role of the OPEC in mitigating the negative impact of coronavirus and the attention towards it. We found that after the OPEC summit both the number of Covid cases and the attention towards the disease lost its influence on oil prices. Our paper is relevant for the behavioral finance researchers, as well as for those who look at the influence of informational shocks on different markets and particularly, on the oil market and at the effect of the COVID-19 on the economy.

The impact of government policy responses on airline stock return during the COVID-19 crisis

This study investigates the impact of government policies on the weekly stock returns of 73 global airline companies in 36 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using panel data estimation techniques with country and week fixed effects, we find that the overall government policies and containment and health policies increase airline stock returns. Economic support policies do not significantly impact the returns. Containment and health policies mitigate the negative effect of the pandemic on airline stock returns, whereas economic support policies strengthen the adverse effect. The government interventions' impact on airline stock returns is heterogeneous based on the headquarters but not on the airline's ownership structures and business operations. Our empirical findings provide salient insights for protecting airline companies by reflecting on which government policy responses are effective and how governments should invest and prioritize policies. The results also present practical implications for airline managers, investors, and policymakers concerned with the current pandemic and future crises.

The Nonlinearity of Working Capital and Cross-Sectional Stock Returns: Does Financial Constraints Matter?

This study is the first to examine the impacts of working capital (WC) and financial constraints on cross-sectional stock returns in Taiwan. The findings indicate a non-linear relationship between WC and stock returns. Moreover, the nonlinearity between WC and cross-sectional stock returns is robust after controlling for financial constraints, risk, and growth factors, before the Covid-19 pandemic. In contrast, there is no evidence of nonlinearity between WC and stock returns throughout the Covid-19 outbreak. In addition, the study shows that any deviations from the minimum WC level enhance the stock returns cross-sectionally. It is found that a positive Deviation effect exists in the Taiwan stock exchange before the Covid-19 pandemic by employing portfolio sorting methodologies. The return difference of the long buying highest Deviation and short selling lowest Deviation portfolios earn from 0.6% to 0.9% per month after controlling for financial constraints, risks, and growth factors. Interestingly, it is determined that the deviation effect becomes negative for small stocks during the Covid-19 pandemic, implying that investors prefer small stocks to maintain minimum working capital. The results support the trade-off theory and liquidity preference theory. Finally, the study provides insights into working capital management for managers, and investment strategies for investors during the pandemic.

On stylized facts of cryptocurrencies returns and their relationship with other assets, with a focus on the impact of COVID-19

This study provides an empirical analysis on the main univariate and multivariate stylized facts iin return series of the two of the largest cryptocurrencies, namely Ethereum and Bitcoin. A Markov-Switching Vector AutoRegression model is considered to further explore the dynamic relationships between cryptocurrencies and other financial assets. We estimate the presence of volatility clustering, a rapid decay of the autocorrelation function, an excess of kurtosis and multivariate little cross-correlation across the series, except for contemporaneous returns. The analysis covers the pandemic period and sheds lights on the behaviour of cryptocurrencies under unexpected extreme events.

Did outside directors' firm-specific accumulated knowledge benefit the firm's stock performance during COVID-19?

We examine whether outside directors' firm-specific accumulated knowledge in the forms of human and internal social capital benefitted the firm during COVID-19. Using a sample of 754 US firms during the COVID-19 collapse period, we find an inverted U-shaped relation between outside directors' average board tenure and cumulative excess stock returns. Our result suggests that firms experienced optimal cumulative excess stock returns during COVID-19 when outside directors' average board tenure is 10 years. We also find that the curvilinear relation is profound for outside directors with more internal social capital, suggesting that outside directors' internal social capital plays a prominent role in enhancing board effectiveness during a crisis. Furthermore, we use several robustness checks to confirm the results. JEL Classification: D83, G30, G34, M41

Would compensation be necessary? The importance of service recovery strategy in e-retail delivery problems

PurposeThis study examines the different effects of service recovery strategies on customers' future intentions when online shoppers were experiencing delivery failures. Two types of problem severity are evaluated: wrong-product delivery (issues with the product quality or quantity) and late delivery. This study also investigates the impact of service criticality on the relationship between service recovery strategies and customers' future intentions.Design/methodology/approachThis study employs experimental research with 123 online shoppers as participants. Following the results, a subsequent test is conducted to examine the effect of participants' demographics on future intentions. Finally, the current study elaborates the findings using qualitative research, interviewing both sides impacted by the service failures: online shoppers and e-retail managers.FindingsThe findings show that complementing product replacement with monetary compensation is the most effective strategy to improve repurchase intention after a dissatisfaction moment. This effect is indifferent to service criticality and severity. Age influences the participants' repurchase intentions, in which younger people are less tolerant of service failures. In contrast, gender and education level do not provide any differences. To prevent delivery failures, managers participating in this study suggest several best practices regarding systems and infrastructure, people and coordination and collaboration with logistics partners.Research limitations/implicationsThe study mainly examines a limited type of service and service failures. Further studies are encouraged to expand the variables and scenarios, as well as to employ more distinctive methods, to enrich the findings related to recovery strategy in the e-commerce industry.Practical implicationsGiven proper compensation, service failure could create momentum for online retailers to boost customer loyalty. This study suggests that managers design the most effective service recovery to win customers back to the business.Originality/valueThis paper enriches the literature related to a service recovery strategy, particularly within the online shopping context.

Corporate ESG and resilience of stock prices in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in China

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on both the financial market and the real economy, leading to widespread concern about the relationship between environmental, social, and governance (ESG) responsibilities and shareholders' wealth. This paper examines the relationship between ESG responsibility and stock returns in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and investigates the impact of ESG responsibility on stock price resilience. The results indicate that corporate ESG scores have positive impacts on stock returns during and after the COVID-19 crisis, with the positive impacts of ESG being more significant in the post-crisis period. Among the different ESG dimensions, environmental responsibility (ESG_E) has a more significant impact on stock returns, while social responsibility (ESG_S) and governance responsibility (ESG_G) have mixed impacts during the crisis. Furthermore, during and after the outbreak of COVID-19, the positive impacts of ESG are more pronounced among firms located in low-trust regions and firms with lower analyst coverage. Additionally, the study finds that corporate ESG responsibility help restore the resilience of stock prices during the crisis, with better ESG performance leading to stronger stock price resilience. Overall, the results strongly support the conclusion that ESG has acted as an "equity vaccine” during the COVID-19 pandemic. © 2023 Elsevier B.V.

Relationship between COVID-19 and the Performance of Pharmaceutical Industry

The aim of the study was to determine how covid-19 affects the pharmaceutical stock market. The monthly data was used in this study span two years, from 2020 to 2022. For the study the independent variables were taken are daily new cases and daily deaths, market to book value and their effect on the market return of pharmaceutical industry. The results showed that the COVID-19 outbreak has had a significant impact on the sector's stock performance. Investors believe healthcare and pharmaceutical companies will benefit from this pandemic as they invest in research and development to prepare for the current epidemic and all subsequent pandemics. The results of this survey showed that investors will continue to invest in healthcare and pharmaceutical companies over time. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of Pharmaceutical Negative Results is the property of ResearchTrentz and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)